Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 2.282098 2.412986 2.554881 2.721608 2.914162 3.132190 3.401749
2025-08-10 2.103964 2.259283 2.433801 2.647629 2.907392 3.219817 3.636378
2025-08-17 2.010888 2.182817 2.380991 2.631437 2.947818 3.347559 3.917010
2025-08-24 1.941326 2.124277 2.339235 2.617468 2.980116 3.457583 4.178985
2025-08-31 1.886244 2.077154 2.304927 2.605569 3.007866 3.556924 4.432761
2025-09-07 1.854988 2.055411 2.298165 2.624923 3.074153 3.711225 4.791568
2025-09-14 1.784097 1.980905 2.220477 2.545087 2.995520 3.642957 4.765715
2025-09-21 1.750616 1.950913 2.196955 2.534381 3.010705 3.712977 4.985055
2025-09-28 1.707425 1.906756 2.152878 2.492760 2.977363 3.702682 5.052053
2025-10-05 1.706035 1.914619 2.175338 2.541418 3.076248 3.907487 5.565959
2025-10-12 1.714110 1.934132 2.212906 2.611746 3.211083 4.185744 6.315053
2025-10-19 1.694485 1.916937 2.200629 2.610225 3.234389 4.273274 6.658583
2025-10-26 1.676420 1.902062 2.191963 2.614937 3.270074 4.391165 7.131509
2025-11-02 1.632794 1.852531 2.134831 2.546687 3.184538 4.275853 6.942301
2025-11-09 1.611048 1.831001 2.114815 2.531464 3.183086 4.317086 7.201804
2025-11-16 1.591479 1.811683 2.096989 2.518306 3.183427 4.360197 7.478028
2025-11-23 1.573812 1.794317 2.081132 2.507074 3.185594 4.405658 7.774999
2025-11-30 1.567517 1.791594 2.084916 2.524574 3.235528 4.549456 8.457591
2025-12-07 1.529834 1.746436 2.029107 2.450913 3.128071 4.362944 7.903276
2025-12-14 1.515587 1.732222 2.015796 2.440826 3.128082 4.398066 8.174261
2025-12-21 1.492040 1.705206 1.984196 2.402260 3.078004 4.325859 8.029153
2025-12-28 1.498081 1.717640 2.007389 2.446895 3.171673 4.561560 9.172393
2026-01-04 1.510448 1.738640 2.042857 2.511340 3.303803 4.901232 11.172937